In 2016 European leaders felt free to insult or laugh off Donald Trump, but caution now seems to rule where a second Trump Presidency looks eminently possible.
In 2016, a Hillary Clinton victory seemed certain to establishment observers watching from Europe, and the rhetoric surrounding the campaign reflected that. The ways in which European leaders tripped over themselves to criticise, belittle, and insult then-candidate and then-President-Elect Donald Trump in 2016 are too numerous to treat exhaustively here.
It filled miles of newsprint for months on end. No doubt, in part, it was informed by a desire to get in the good graces of Hillary Clinton, whom the mainstream opinion held was on the right side of history and a dead cert for the White House.
The influential European Council on Foreign Relations published a report a month before the 2016 election summarising these commonplace views, reflecting that: “Europeans, particularly those in government, yearn for the elusive continuity of the transatlantic relationship. They have a deep desire for the US to continue and even enhance its role as a provider of security of Europe. Consequently, they broadly prefer Hillary Clinton — the candidate most associated with continuity — to win the presidency.”
Clinton was the preferred candidate for “almost every government and mainstream party in Europe”. France’s socialist government had already coined the ‘Trumpisation of the mind’ as a convenient shorthand to attack their right-wing political opponents long before the election was even fought. In Italy, then-Prime Minister Matteo Renzi had endorsed Hillary Clinton, evidently believing there would be no future Trump administration to try and get along with. Renzi proclaimed at the time that he would feel safer knowing “there will be a great woman who can lead the free world”.
This certainty of a Clinton victory turned to spiteful despair after the results came in. Following the election, the President of the European Council Donald Tusk called the result a “warning sign for all who believe in liberal democracy,” while France’s President—again who openly endorsed Clinton—said Trump’s election created “a period of uncertainty” and that Trump and his ideas must be “confronted.”
Angela Merkel attempted to congratulate Trump on his victory in a statement that devolved into a lengthy, hectoring lecture about how she wanted him to behave in office. In all, as stated by the BBC at the time as it reviewed the responses of Europe’s leaders: “The ‘sincere’ (their word) letter of congratulations to Donald Trump penned this morning by the big cheeses… oozes EU angst from every line… politically correct congratulations trickling their way to Donald Trump’s in-tray today were sent through gritted teeth by leaders across Europe.”
Even after Trump became president-elect, the snubs and insults rolled on and on, giving the impression such a posture would come consequence-free.
The situation today, on the precipice of the American people deciding who will be the next President of the United States, could hardly be more different, with European leaders taking a public position of wait and see, if not engaging in outright work to build bridges with a potential second Trump White House. As reported, Britain’s new left-wing Labour Party government has gone from out-and-proud Trump critic to eagerly courting the Trump team with a “charm offensive”.
UK Foreign Minister David Lammy, who has been a key figure in this exercise, has been on a real journey. Just a few short years ago, Lammy called President Trump a “woman-hating, neo-Nazi sympathising sociopath” and a “dangerous clown”.
The now-head of NATO, Mark Rutte, has said that a Trump presidency will be no problem, saying that he respects and has a good relationship with him. A far cry from the alarm over what Trump would mean for NATO back in 2016 and from Rutte’s own comments then when he was the Dutch Prime Minister. Although Rutte has developed a strong reputation for being a ‘Trump whisperer‘ among European leaders since, it was said in 2016 that “it is clear from comments in the media that Prime Minister Mark Rutte does not support Donald Trump”.
Whether European leaders learned a lesson on expecting the unexpected in 2016, or if they are eyeing a race that seems too close to call, it is clear there has been a massive shift in European attitudes to American democracy in the past eight years, with a palpable sense of not wanting to unduly upset a potential future President if it can be avoided. Case in point: consider the fate of poor Thierry Breton, once a great potentate within the European Union’s fledgling federal state, who recently found himself out of a job after going rogueagainst Elon Musk and Donald Trump.
Europe is also appreciably more right wing now than it was eight years ago. In elections past Trump could hope for just one friendly face among Europe’s leaders, Hungary’s Viktor Orban. Today, veteran populist firebrand Geert Wilders is the dominant power in the Netherlands, Italy is led by border control leader Giorgia Meloni.
In Sweden — and this was utterly unthinkable in 2016 — the former sick man of Europe has so thoroughly changed its ways it now enjoys net emigration. In Finland, Czechia, Slovakia, and Croatia conservatives of varying flavours are in power. In France, Marine Le Pen’s border control populists are dominating the polls and holds considerable sway over Macron’s new government.
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