Pollster Frank Luntz said this week that Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s endorsement of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump could be the difference that propels Trump to victory this fall over Democrat presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris.
Luntz told Leland Vittert on NewsNation that while RFK Jr.’s impact on the race has gone down since President Joe Biden was forced out, he still has enough impact to sway the outcome of the election.
“It’s probably worth about 1% for Trump, and that 1% could be everything if it’s in all the swing states,” Luntz said. “In the end, the reason why Kennedy was strong 10%, 12%, even as high as 14% is because he was taking votes away from Joe Biden. Joe Biden is gone. Kamala Harris has replaced him, and his vote collapsed down to about 4% or 5%. And what’s left is a Trump vote.”
“Some of them are simply not going to participate in November,” he added. “Roughly 2 to 1, the ones who are remaining will vote for Trump over Harris. And that’s worth a single percent. And a single percent can make the difference in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.”
WATCH:
Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio, one of the top pollsters in the country, said in a memo this week that data from seven swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — showed RFK Jr. eating up 3-5% in each state.
“To put these numbers into perspective, the net vote gained in a state like Arizona based on just a 2020 turnout model would be over 41,000 votes[,] nearly 4 times Biden’s winning margin or in Georgia the net gain would be over 19,000 votes[,] nearly twice Biden’s margin,” he wrote. “So, when you hear or see the Harris team and/or the Democrats try and spin otherwise, now that the data clearly paints a different picture. This is good news for President Trump and his campaign – plain and simple.”
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