Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in the 25 counties that have correctly predicted the last four elections, according to a new poll exclusively obtained by The Daily Wire.
The polling firm Cygnal found that Trump leads Biden by 2 points in a head-to-head matchup across the 25 bellwether counties, though the Republican nominee enjoyed a 3 point advantage over Biden in polls that include third party candidates.
“Since 2008, only 25 counties out of 3,142 across the United States have voted for Democrat Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Republican Donald Trump in 2016, and flipped back to Democrat, voting for Joe Biden in 2020,” a poll analysis provided by Cygnal explains. “We’re talking about a really, really small group of people that are really, really influential because they got it right for all those elections,” President and Founder of Cygnal Brent Buchanan told The Daily Wire.
The poll was conducted just after the June 27th presidential debate, and comes days after Trump survived an assassination attempt and was officially secured the Republican nomination. A large percentage of likely voters in the bellwether counties watched the debate between the two presidential contenders, and widely agreed that Trump won.
“The fallout for Biden from the June 27th debate cannot be understated. 8-in-10 likely voters in the nation’s Bellwether Counties say they watched the debate, and of those, 63% say Trump won the debate, 17% Biden,” the poll states. Another 20% of respondents say that they are undecided on who won.
The top issues for bellwether county voters are the economy, illegal immigration, and threats to democracy, in that order. Voters in these counties are more concerned about the latter two issues than the rest of the country. Among undecided independents, the top issues are illegal immigration and the economy, two topics that are likely to benefit Trump.
The poll notes that these voters are slightly less pessimistic about the trajectory of the nation, but still widely agree that we are heading in the wrong direction. According to the Cygnal poll, “27% say the U.S. is headed in the right direction, 68% say we’re off on the wrong track.”
Biden could also suffer from a lack of enthusiasm among bellwether county voters who supported him in 2020. Only 73% have committed to supporting the president in the upcoming election. Another 13% say that they have not committed to voting for the Democratic incumbent again.
Buchanan also addressed the state of race more broadly, telling The Daily Wire that “if Joe Biden loses any one of the Rust Belt states, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, there’s, there’s almost no path for him” to win the election.
The Cygnal president also explained what he believes will be the deciding factor in the election. “I think it comes down to, as everybody says, turnout. And that might seem like a cop out. But really, there is a group of folks that are lower propensity voters. They don’t show up in midterms. They don’t pay attention as much to what’s going on in the news,” he explained.
“That is the group of voters who has been trending hardest towards Donald Trump. That’s the group of voters that you can tell at this convention that they’re trying to speak to … and them deciding on November 5th or in early voting to actually participate is going to be the difference.”
The Cygnal poll comes amid widespread speculation as to whether Biden will be replaced on the Democratic ticket ahead of the party’s August 19th convention. A new report from Axios states that some top Democrats believe that Biden is increasingly likely to drop out of the race and could back out as soon as this weekend.
On Wednesday, Biden indicated in an interview clip that he would be open to dropping out of the race if he was diagnosed with a “medical condition.” Hours after the interview was released, he was diagnosed with COVID.
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