CNN’s top data reporter highlighted some polling trends on Friday that could spell trouble for President Joe Biden heading into the fall’s rematch against former President Donald Trump.
Senior data analyst Harry Enten told Kate Bolduan that Trump’s rally in the Bronx should be worrying for Biden even though Biden handily won the district in 2020 and is not in serious danger of losing it in 2024.
“You see Obama 94%, Obama 96%, Clinton 92%, Biden won it, but by only 69 points,” Enten said, noting that even though Biden’s margin was large, it was still 20+ points lower than past Democratic presidents.
Specifically, he warned that non-white voters were far more likely to be pro-Trump now than they ever were in recent elections, making the coalition that Biden needs to win harder to put together.
“This is a sign of the Hispanic movement that we saw last cycle, right, where we saw, although Hispanics still favored the Democratic candidate in Joe Biden, they were less likely to favor him than they did Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama both times, and it’s not just there that happened,” he said. “We saw it in Hispanic precincts and counties across the country from southeast Florida, southern Texas, even in the Los Angeles area.”
“Look at the trend that we’re seeing right now in the polling, right? So if you look back at Hispanic voters at this point in the 2020 cycle, Joe Biden had a 25-point lead,” he continued. “Look at where that lead is today. It’s just seven points. Donald Trump right now at 44%, if that held, would be the best performance for a Republican candidate among Hispanic voters since George W. Bush back in 2004.”
He said that the best chance Biden has to win is to target white voters in the Great Lake battleground states.
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