Following former President Donald Trump’s dominant win in the Iowa caucuses on Monday, the GOP primary now shifts to New Hampshire, where Trump holds a smaller lead in the polls.
The most recent polls of the Granite State show Trump in the lead by an average of 13 points, according to Real Clear Politics, suggesting the New Hampshire primary will be a far more competitive race than Iowa, where Trump blew out his GOP opponents by nearly 30 points and won in 98 of the state’s 99 counties.
According to the RCP average of New Hampshire polls, Trump stands at 44.5%, and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley is at 31.3%. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who finished in second place in Iowa, is polling just under 6% in New Hampshire, the RCP average shows, as he remains behind former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who have both dropped out of the race.
The most recent poll, conducted by the Boston Globe/Suffolk this week, shows Trump nearing his numbers in Iowa, hitting 50%, while Haley places second at 34%. DeSantis was in a distant third in the state, taking just 5% of the vote. The Haley campaign remains hopeful for an upset in the first-in-the-nation primary, however, pointing to a CNN/UNH poll conducted earlier this month that shows the former U.S. ambassador to the U.N. just seven points behind Trump, trailing him 32% to 39%.
The CNN/UNH poll also showed that Haley is the most to benefit from Christie’s decision to suspend his campaign. Sixty-five percent of voters in New Hampshire who picked Christie as their first choice back Haley as their second option, according to the poll.
Trump’s 51% in Iowa was just 1.5 percentage points shy of his RCP average in the polls leading up to the caucuses. Meanwhile, DeSantis’ support in Iowa was slightly underestimated by the polls as the Florida governor took second place with 21.2% while the RCP average had him at 15.7%. The RCP average for Haley was spot on with the actual result in the Iowa caucuses as she finished at 19.1%, just three-tenths of a percent higher than her average, according to RCP.
Trump’s win in Iowa has convinced more Republicans that the former president will be the nominee heading into the 2024 election and a potential rematch with President Joe Biden. Ramaswamy, who received nearly 8% of the vote in Iowa on Monday, endorsed Trump and appeared with the former president at an event in New Hampshire on Tuesday. Trump also received the endorsement of Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) after his win in Iowa.
“I’m a big believer in letting democracy play out,” Cruz said on Tuesday. “Well, last night it played out and I gotta say, Trump’s victory was across the board, he won 51% of the vote, he won 98 of the counties. Congratulations to President Trump on that dominating victory. And at this point, I believe this race is over. So I am proud to endorse Donald Trump for President of the United States. I look forward to supporting him enthusiastically because I think it’s time for the Republican Party to unite, for us to come together.”
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