The Democrat party has lost Hispanic and black voter support since the 2020 election, two essential demographics the party needs to retain its fragile, intersectional coalition, according to a Wall Street Journal (WSJ) poll released Monday.
In August, Hispanic voters favored Democrats by 11 points. That lead has been cut to five points in October.
In just four years, Democrats have lost Hispanic support by 26 points.
The margin of five points in October is far less than in 2020 when President Joe Biden was favored over former President Donald Trump by 28 points. In 2018, Hispanics favored Democrats by 31 points.
A similar exodus from the Democrat party is seen among black voters. The poll found 17 percent of black voters would vote for a Republican in 2022. In 2020, that number was only eight percent, a nine point swing in two years. Eight percent also supported Republicans in 2018.
The WSJ poll sampled 1,500 people from October 22-26, including 180 black voters with a 7.3 margin of error and 400 Hispanic voters with a 4.9 margin of error.
“It is wholly possible that Republicans reach a new high water mark among both African-Americans and Hispanic voters in this election,” Biden’s lead pollster, Tony Fabrizio, told the outlet.
The polling is notable because the Democrat Party has constantly won the black vote by huge margins since the 1960s when Democrat former President Lyndon Johnson from a southern state was able to successfully solidify black support. Modern day Democrats have tried to bring Hispanic voters into their fold on the basis of forming an intersectional coalition among so-called marginalized groups.
But with the rise of crime, illegal immigration, and inflation, which disproportionally impacts less financially wealthy citizens, black and Hispanic voters have moved towards the Republicans.
Monday’s polling numbers suggest Republicans will have significant gains in the 2022 midterm elections. Many races will likely be decided by one percentage point. Black and Hispanic voters could play a huge role in which party controls Congress.
Woman are also leaving the Democrat party. Polling revealed last week that white suburban women have moved 27 points away from Democrats since August and now favor Republicans by 15 points. The demographic of white suburban women represents 20 percent of the electorate.
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