New evidence of a huge military build-up within striking distance of Ukraine in preparation for a 'nine-month war' has emerged hours after US President Joe Biden said Russia's Vladimir Putin now 'has to do something'.
Satellite images dated January 19 show a battlegroup deployed at Voronezh base around 200 miles (330km) from the Ukraine border with rows of tank artillery and support equipment massed at Yelnya, 77 miles (125km) from Russia's border with Belarus.
Other images show military equipment gathered at two bases, Klintsky and Klimovo, that sit only 18 miles (30km) from the Belarusian frontier and no more than 31 miles (50km) from Russia's border with Ukraine.
The region has been on a knife-edge since the end of last year when Moscow moved as many as 100,000 troops, as well as tanks and missiles, close to the border, but tensions have ramped up in recent days after a surge in equipment and troop movements, among them military police, from the extreme east of the country.
Military families have been warned their servicemen could be away from home for up to nine months after being moved thousands of miles to the West, and to expect them to be involved in a conflict in Ukraine.
Videos showed trains carrying multiple rocket launchers, fighting vehicles, communication trucks and general transportation trucks over the Russian border to Belarusian bases in Gomel and Rechitsa, both of which at under 37 miles (60km) from the border are within striking distance of Ukraine.
Russia and Belarus have claimed the movement of troops and equipment is linked to hastily arranged joint military exercises between the two countries - but observers branded the explanation a smokescreen for preparations for an invasion of Ukraine which the West now expects to happen imminently.
President Biden said yesterday that the Russian strongman now 'has to do something' but that he believes Putin does not want full-blown war - and warned Russia would pay a 'dear price' if Moscow launches a military incursion.
'He has to do something... He is trying to find his place in the world between China and the West,' Biden said of Putin hours after announcing the US would provide an additional $200 million in defensive military aid to Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression.
But he also suggested a 'minor incursion' might elicit a lesser response than a full-scale invasion of the country, a comment that drew immediate condemnation from some corners with Republican senators claiming the President had effectively given Putin the green light to invade Ukraine.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov today denounced Biden's remarks, blaming the US president for destabilising an already tense situation. At the same time he did not rule out new security talks between Putin and Biden.
Satellite images dated January 19 show a battlegroup deployed at Voronezh base around 200 miles from the Ukraine border as Moscow ramps up a military build up along the frontier in preparation for a 'nine-month war'
The region has been on a knife-edge since the end of last year when Moscow moved as many as 100,000 troops, as well as tanks and missiles, close to the border (pictured, a battle group deployment in Voronezh, Russia, near the Ukrainian border on January 19)
Satellite images dated January 19 showed rows of tank artillery and support equipment massed at Yelnya, 77 miles from Russia's border with Belarus, after a months-long build-up of troops along the border with Ukraine
Other images show military equipment gathered at two bases, Klintsky and Klimovo, (pictured) that sit only 18 miles from the Belarusian frontier and no more than 31 miles from Russia's border with Ukraine
Footage showed trains carrying multiple rocket launchers, fighting vehicles, communication trucks and general transportation trucks over the Russian border to Belarusian bases in Gomel and Rechitsa, both of which at under 60km from the border are within striking distance of Ukraine
Military support vehicles and personnel have been ferried from eastern Russia to the border with Ukraine and service members families warned their relatives could be away from home for up to nine months and to expect them to be involved in a conflict in Ukraine
Russian troops were seen arriving in Belarusian bases in Gomel and Rechitsa, (pictured) both of which at under 60km from the border are within striking distance of Ukraine, ostensibly for joint military drills taking place from February 10
Russia and Belarus have claimed the mass movement of troops and equipment on trains to the over the border is linked to hastily arranged joint military exercises between the two countries - but observers branded the explanation a smokescreen for preparations for an invasion of Ukraine which the West now expects to happen imminently
Moscow has for weeks been massing tens of thousands of troops, tanks and artillery pieces along its eastern flank, sparking fears of an invasion, though the Kremlin has insisted it is merely a defence force (pictured, Russian forces currently massed in border regions)
This week's military massing in Belarus adds to Russia's forces to the east of Ukraine as well as south in Crimea and the Black Sea, where some 100,000 are believed to be in place.
The new analyses show that only part of the military hardware and troops are going to the training grounds announced for the exercises.
'The other part stopped halfway, near Gomel, in an area that is only 40km from the Chernihiv region of Ukraine and 90km from the Kiev region', according to a Radio Liberty report.
Meanwhile dozens of mothers and wives appeared to have taken to social media to voice concerns about their military relatives who have been shipped across the country in apparent preparation for war between Russia and Ukraine
Many of the comments indicated forces from the far east were sent 'first to Moscow, then to Ukraine' and said 'almost all contract soldiers' had been sent towards Ukraine.
While officially the joint Russian-Belarusian exercises last only from 10-20 February 'relatives and friends of the military write that the trip will last 6-to-9 months.'
The massing of troops along the border has been seen as an echo of the Russian playbook from 2014 when Putin annexed the Crimean peninsula and backed pro-Russian separatists in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.
President Biden was yesterday accused of effectively giving Russia 'the green light' to invade Ukraine after he said a 'minor incursion' by Moscow might elicit a lesser response than a full-scale invasion of the country.
'It's one thing if it's a minor incursion and we end up having to fight about what to do and not do, et cetera,' Biden said at a White House press conference where Russia came up repeatedly.
Later Wednesday evening, National Security Council spokeswoman Emily Horne wrote that Biden had 'clarified this. He was referring to the difference between military and non-military/para-military/cyber action by the Russians. Such actions would be met by a reciprocal response, in coordination with Allies and partners,' she said.
A Ukrainian official, responding to Biden's original comments, told CNN after the press conference: 'This remark potentially gives the green light to Putin to enter Ukraine at his pleasure.'
The White House was also forced to issue a full clarifying statement. 'President Biden has been clear with the Russian President: If any Russian military forces move across the Ukrainian border, that's a renewed invasion, and it will be met with a swift, severe, and united response from the United States and our Allies,' according to a statement from White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki.
'President Biden also knows from long experience that the Russians have an extensive playbook of aggression short of military action, including cyberattacks and paramilitary tactics. And he affirmed today that those acts of Russian aggression will be met with a decisive, reciprocal, and united response,' she said.
During the press conference, Biden has also said it would be a 'disaster' for Russia if Putin ordered an invasion of neighboring Ukraine.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov today denounced Biden for his comments, stressing that he was destabilizing an already tense situation.
Peskov said Biden's statements can 'facilitate the destabilization of the situation because they can inspire some hotheads in Ukraine with false hopes.'
At the same time Peskov did not rule out new security talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Biden.
With tens of thousands of Russian troops massed on the Ukrainian border, fears are mounting that a major conflict could break out in Europe.
A Russian convoy of a BM-27 220mm multiple rocket launcher and 11 9T452 transporter-loader vehicles arrived in Gomel, Belarus, on Monday from eastern Siberia.
While footage posted online showed 11 transporter-loaders and a single BM-27 multiple rocket launcher, which later was seen in Gomel, before heading 'directly for the Ukrainian border' just 30km away, DFRLab reported.
Local media reported that military equipment including logistical vehicles such as fuel trucks and other transports followed by a civilian truck and bus was seen heading south from Gomel, towards the Ukrainian border.
BM-27 launchers were also seen at the railway station in Rechitsa.
While trains seen in the Smolensk region in western Russia - seemingly en route to Belarus - appeared to show 16th Radiation, Biological, and Chemical Defence Brigade from Primorsky Krai, some 5,800 miles from its base.
Footage showed trains carrying multiple rocket launchers, fighting vehicles, communication trucks and general transportation trucks over the Russian border to Belarusian bases in Gomel and Rechitsa, both of which at under 60km from the border are within striking distance of Ukraine
Russia and Belarus have claimed the mass movement of troops and equipment on trains to the over the border is linked to hastily arranged joint military exercises between the two countries - but observers branded the explanation a smokescreen for preparations for an invasion of Ukraine which the West now expects to happen imminently
Images and footage showed rocket launchers and military support vehicles making the journey from east Russia to the border with Ukraine in recent days as Moscow ramps up the build-up of troops along the frontier
Military support vehicles and personnel have been ferried from eastern Russia to the border with Ukraine and service members families warned their relatives could be away from home for up to nine months and to expect them to be involved in a conflict in Ukraine
Rocket launchers and troops were seen arriving in a snowing Rechitsa, Belarus, for supposed military drills next month, though observers have said the excuse is a smokescreen for an invasion
Armoured vehicles and troops were pictured at the Belarusian base in Gomel, under 60km from the border with Ukraine, ahead of the supposed joint military drills
Footage showed trains carrying multiple rocket launchers, fighting vehicles, communication trucks and general transportation trucks over the Russian border to Belarusian bases in Gomel and Rechitsa, both of which at under 60km from the border are within striking distance of Ukraine
President Biden said yesterday that his 'guess' was the Russian strongman would 'move in' to Ukraine in the coming weeks but that he believes Putin does not want full-blown war - and declared Russia would pay a 'dear price' if Moscow launches a military incursion
Biden also suggested a 'minor incursion' might elicit a lesser response than a full-scale invasion of the country, a comment that drew immediate condemnation from some corners with Republican senators claiming the President had effectively given Putin the green light to invade Ukraine
Russian military vehicles arriving in Belarus are seen in this photograph distributed by the Belarus Ministry of Defense on Tuesday, ahead of joint exercises
Russian servicemen prepare their military vehicles to unload for Russia and Belarus joint military drill in Belarus on January 18
French Navy yesterday reportedly escorted Russian Baltic Sea landing ships Korolev, Minsk and Kaliningrad and Northern Fleet warships Olenegorsky Gornyak, Pyotr Morgunov, and Georgii Pobedonosets towards the English Channel, sparking speculation they are bound for the Black Sea.
The ships, which can each carry up to 25 armoured personnel carriers, were deployed three days ago but it remains unclear if they are heading for Ukraine.
Ukrainian Defense Ministry's latest intelligence assessment yesterday warned Russia had massed more than 127,000 troops along the border, together with a sea and air component that marked a 'full strength' force.
The assessment, seen by CNN, described the situation as 'difficult' and warned Russian President Vladimir Putin was 'trying to split and weaken the European Union and NATO' while also 'limiting the capabilities of the United States... to ensure security on the European continent'.
The deployment of Russian troops to Belarus was cited in the report which said Belarus 'should be considered as a full-fledged theater of operations that Russia can use to expand aggression against Ukraine.'
The assessment said Moscow had deployed troops to the border on a 'permanent' basis and said the movement of 'stockpiles of ammunition, field hospitals and security services' to the hinterlands confirmed 'the preparation for offensive operations'.
It said Russia had deployed 36 Iskander launchers, weapons capable of hitting targets up to 700km away, near Ukraine and said the medium-range missiles that could be used to 'destroy vital objects'.
The assessment put the number of rebels within Ukraine who are loyal to Moscow at 35,000 and estimated Russia has a further 3,000 military personnel within Kiev's territory.
Russian deputy Defence Minister Alexander Fomin confirmed that the mission includes the relocation of two S-400 mobile surface to air missile battalions, a Pantsir-S battalion and 12 Su-35 fighters for the 'surprise' inspection and drills.
And in another twist yesterday Moscow announced the 'successful' completion of tests on its Kinzhal - or Dagger - hypersonic missiles, which can carry nuclear or conventional weapons with a range of 1,250 miles, in the Arctic, though the weapons had been deployed with Russian forces ahead of the trials.
On top of the military forces sent to Ukraine by Britain, the Biden administration today said it is providing an additional $200 million in defensive military aid to the country, with the US having previously supplied small arms, ammunition, secure radios, medical equipment, spare parts and other equipment. Biden has also previously ruled out sending US forces into Ukraine, but special forces already operate under rotation there to train Ukrainian soldiers
Ukrainian Defense Ministry's latest intelligence assessment yesterday warned Russia had massed more than 127,000 troops along the border, together with a sea and air component that marked a 'full strength' force (Pictured: A convoy of Russian armoured vehicles moves along a highway in Crimea, Tuesday, January 18, 2022)
Six Russian landing ships (pictured, landing ship Minsk near the Great Belt Bridge in Denmark en route to the North Sea) have sailed past Britain sparking speculation they are bound for an impending 'full-scale invasion' of Ukraine
Northern Fleet warships Olenegorsky Gornyak Pyotr Morgunov, (pictured) and Georgii Pobedonosets passed through the Great Belt Bridge in Denmark on Monday, possibly en route to Ukraine
A map showing the route the six landing ships could possibly be taking from Russia's second Baltic Sea base Kronstadt to Ukraine ahead of a 'full-scale invasion'. The vessels were pictured at the Great Belt Bridge in Denmark on Monday and, if heading to Ukraine, are likely to have already transited the Channel
Moscow insists it has no plans to invade Ukraine but has at the same time laid down a series of security demands - including a ban on Ukraine joining NATO - in exchange for de-escalation.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov for a new round of security talks in Geneva on Friday.
Blinken said Wednesday he would not formally respond with written answers to Russia's demands, hoping instead to explore areas of cooperation.
Peskov said Thursday that Russia still expected to receive a 'written' response 'in the coming days.'
Blinken warned that Russia could attack Ukraine on 'very short notice' during remarks at the American embassy in Kyiv on Wednesday.
Blinken met with President Volodymyr Zelensky as the Biden administration today said it is providing an additional $200 million in defensive military aid to the country amid growing fears that a Russian invasion is imminent.
Upon his arrival Kyiv to open a hastily arranged visit to show U.S. support, Blinken told embassy staff: 'We know that there are plans in place to increase that (Russian) force even more on very short notice.'
'That gives President Putin the capacity, also on very short notice, to take further aggressive action against Ukraine,' Blinken said.
He also maintained that a peaceful, diplomatic solution was still the priority, but stressed the situation was entirely reactive to Russian President Vladimir Putin's actions.
'I strongly, strongly hope that we can keep this on a diplomatic and peaceful path, but ultimately, that's going to be President Putin's decision.', Blinken said.
The United States' chief diplomat ratcheted up his warning about the Kremlin's military capabilities during a press conference with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.
Blinken added to his warning of a potentially imminent Russian attack that Ukraine could also face twice as many enemy troops in the process.
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